Small business owners turn more bullish amid Fed interest rate cuts: CNBC survey

Small business owners are collectively breathing a sigh of relief at the Federal Reserve’s widely-anticipated decision to cut interest rates last week, and new data show owners expect to put that increased capital to work.

CNBC and SurveyMonkey’s Small Business Survey for Q3 found that owners said lower interest rates will lead them to increase investments, expand their business or increase inventory. The poll was taken September 3-9, before the Fed meeting where a rate cut was expected, among a national sample of 2,276 self-identified small business owners ages 18 and up online.

Main Street has been closely monitoring interest rates. Data from the National Federation of Independent Business, a small business lobbying group, found interest rates on short maturity loans stood at 9.5 percent in August of this year, up from 7.6 percent in January of 2023. In addition, 60 percent of owners said they were not interested in borrowing right now, due in part to high rates.

Lower rates can free up resources for owners to allocate to other areas of their business, including remaining competitive on hiring, according to Holly Wade, director of the NFIB’s Research Center.

“That would be a great benefit for them to see if they can’t be more competitive in that space on wages and benefits and ease up some of those cost pressures that they’ve been dealing with for the last three or so years,” Wade told CNBC in an interview.

Closely tied to interest rates is inflation. One in three small business owners in CNBC and SurveyMonkey’s survey believe that inflation has peaked, up 9 points from last quarter’s 24 percent reading. But two-thirds still believe it will continue to rise despite optimism for inflation relief hitting its highest level since CNBC and SurveyMonkey began asking that question, and the highest reading this year. Still, owners are cautious, as 38 percent say inflation is the biggest risk to their business, nearly three times higher than the next biggest risks, consumer demand and interest rates.

In addition, overall confidence increased in the quarterly CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll to 51 out of 100. That’s up four points from last quarter and nine points from the same quarter last year, and the first time during the Biden presidency that it has risen above 50, a “net confident” reading.