Eli Lilly’s earnings rally is not done yet — plus, why TJX has stayed resilient in the volatility
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Mixed Markets: The S & P 500 is trying to finish the week out on a higher note after fluctuating between gains and losses for a good chunk of the session. By midafternoon, though, the index was solidly in the green — and, improbably, briefly entered into positive territory for the week despite Monday’s global stock rout. Unlike Thursday’s rally on the lower than expected jobless claim data, which helped the S & P 500 post its biggest gain since November 2022, there isn’t a lot of news to trade off Friday, potentially explaining the market’s lack of direction to start the session. Yields on longer-dated Treasury notes are dipping lower, with the benchmark 10-year sitting at about 3.9%. And oil is on pace for a weekly gain of more than 4% as traders weigh the risks of escalating tensions in the Middle East. TSMC strength: There may be a debate in the market about the size and duration of artificial intelligence investments. But for now, at least, all signs still point to robust growth in the near term. Supporting this view was yet another strong month of sales data from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company . The lead chip manufacturer for Club names Apple and Nvidia on Friday reported a 45% year-over-year increase in revenue in July, an acceleration from the 33% year-over-year growth rate in June. Estimates climb: Shares of Eli Lilly were rallying for a second straight day after reporting a true blowout second quarter on Thursday , with revenues beating estimates by more than $1 billion and adjusted earnings per share topping them by $1.32. The only thing more impressive than the beat was the magnitude of the drugmaker’s outlook hike. Management raised its sales outlook by $3 billion and the midpoint of its adjusted earnings per share view by $2.60. Lilly’s bullish forecast forced analysts to revise their forward estimates materially higher. Looking out to 2025, the mean adjusted EPS analyst forecast is now $21.09, up from $19.22 at the end of July, according to FactSet. This nearly 10% increase in the earnings forecast is how you get a stock to rally more than 15% over two days. Retail on deck: The market’s growing concern about a slowdown in consumer spending will be put to the test next week. It’s a big one for retail with earnings from Home Depot and Walmart and, more broadly, the Commerce Department’s July retail sales report. But those fears have yet to hit the stock of Club holding TJX Companies . Shares of the off-price retailer have been relatively resilient throughout this volatile spurt, with shares less than $5 off their mid-July high of about $115. A reason why investors may be hesitant to sell TJX is because it is a market-share gainer in this environment, benefiting from consumers in search of quality brands at bargain prices. The retailer doesn’t report its fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings for another couple of weeks, but analysts at Cowen previewed the print in a note late Thursday and provided a look into the rest of the year. In what Cowen sees as a weaker back-to-school environment for mall-based department stores and vendors, analysts think the buying environment for TJX is getting better. Cowen raised its second-quarter comparable store sales estimate for Marmaxx — covering Marshall’s and TJ Maxx stores — by one percentage point to 4%. It also lifted its estimate for adjusted earnings per share to $0.96, which is ahead of the consensus of $0.92. Up next: Beyond the retail spotlight next week, we’ll also get two inflation reports in the producer price index and the consumer price index on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. We’ll be looking for inflation to continue its downward trend as the market overwhelmingly expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.